Project SkyPower has undertaken an assessment of how ReFuelEU could affect the competitiveness of European airlines as SAF mandates scale. The analysis identifies where relative cost differences may emerge, how material they could become, and what targeted measures may be needed to support the long-term success of the policy.
ReFuelEU is not expected to create a broad cost problem for European aviation. The main risk is more targeted: on some long-haul routes, EU airlines may face higher fuel-related costs than non-EU competitors using alternative transfer hubs.
Unchecked additional relative costs will impact competitiveness. While airlines have ways to manage these pressures, these are already largely optimised and each has a ceiling.
The price impact on EU airlines is immediate and becomes more material in the 2040s. On the most exposed routes, EU airlines could face fare increases of up to 20% by 2040 relative to non-EU competitors.
A targeted corrective measure would give airlines greater confidence to compete globally while supporting Europe’s climate ambition. Clear line of sight on such a measure will be important for the long-term success of ReFuelEU.