To pave the way for the first large-scale e-SAF plants to reach Final Investment Decision by end 2025
The challenge
e-SAF plants face major barriers to reaching final investment decision
The global aviation industry has committed to cutting emissions significantly by 2050 – with e-SAF forecast to be a critical lever for this, particularly for long-haul flight.
To reach the scale needed by 2050, e-SAF must achieve commercial scale by 2030 and hit market tipping points in the 2030s. Given project development timelines of around five years, Final Investment Decisions (FID) for e-SAF projects are needed by end of 2025.
No large-scale plant has reached FID yet with project bankability hindered by the high risks involved in such first-of-a-kind plants, the high investment requirements, and initially high green premiums.
The opportunity
Europe could become a global leader in e-SAF
Studies suggest that e-SAF could offer the largest lifecycle emissions reductions at the most competitive cost of all SAF types by 2050, with lifecycle emissions reductions of over 90% relative to fossil jet fuel. The global market for e-SAF could be worth EUR 250 billion by 2050, creating almost 90,000 jobs.
With two-thirds of the global e-SAF project pipeline located in Europe, the continent is well-positioned to become a key provider of technology and expertise for e-SAF to the global market.
By successfully scaling e-SAF, Europe can increase its energy security, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels, and strengthen its climate leadership, leading the way for large-scale emissions reductions in the global aviation industry.
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The mission
Cross-value chain collaboration to enhance bankability of first e-SAF projects
Existing initiatives have aligned the broader aviation ecosystem on a common vision for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and a roadmap towards net-zero. Now we must translate these sector-level findings into specific measures for individual e-SAF projects, and work with the entire aviation and energy value chain in Europe towards the bankability of first projects.
Our working hypothesis is that there are three key requirements to overcome barriers and get first projects to FID: reducing the green premium, sharing the cost, and de-risking e-SAF projects. By developing and implementing concrete solutions which achieve these three objectives, we hope to unlock FIDs in the first large-scale e-SAF plants in Europe by the end of 2025 and beyond.
