With the aim of creating transparency on the economics of e-SAF production in Europe, Project SkyPower is sharing a bottom-up technoeconomic model simulating the project-level economics.
Project SkyPower has developed an open-source technoeconomic model of e-SAF production projects in Denmark, France, Sweden, Norway and the United Kingdom. This model has been developed in close collaboration with many of the member organisations, who acknowledge the importance of scaling e-SAF production this decade. It is intended to foster value chain alignment on the economics of e-SAF production and facilitate informed discussions (rather than to represent a consensus on every input assumption and result).
This bottom-up cash flow model, leveraging expert input and open-source data, allows for the customisation of key design parameters, such as the production pathway (reverse water gas shift Fischer-Tropsch vs methanol-to-jet), year of construction, plant set-up, and financing structure. Key outputs presented on the dashboard include the levelised cost of e-fuels production, IRR / NPV, and payback period.
The model also enables the simulation of key levers, including policy support schemes, responsible finance and increased willingness to pay from the market, enabling users to identify what combination of levers are required to enable bankability of an e-SAF project in Europe.
The results of the model were used to inform Project SkyPower’s recent insights report, which can be found here and will continue to be utilised by the Project to engage key decision makers and inform the activities and recommendations made by Project SkyPower and its members,
For more information or clarifying questions, please contact [email protected]
© 2024. This Project SkyPower e-SAF model 2024 is openly licensed via CC BY-NC 4.0
Please note the model is for informational purposes only and should not be used for investment, financial, or any other form of professional advice. It is not meant to be used as the basis for financial and investment decisions by third parties or a part of any financial transaction. Results are indicative in nature and intended primarily to facilitate comparisons. All data points are from open-source, open-access sources and have been reviewed by members of Project SkyPower. However, we acknowledge that, given the nascence of the industry, e-SAF production costs are typically underestimated in literature as few projects have undergone FEED studies, a stage in which cost estimates tend to change.